This season, Two for the Ice is adding to its analytical series by tracking first events to first events* — how leading dance teams fared in 2014-15’s debut against this season’s.
As a matter of further interest, the four top U.S. and Canadian dance couples who competed at the U.S. International Figure Skating Classic in Salt Lake City (Madison Hubbell and Zach Donohue, Elisabeth Paradis and Francois-Xavier Ouellette) and Nebelhorn Trophy in Oberstdorf (Madison Chock and Evan Bates, Alexandra Paul and Mitch Islam) have all seen significant changes in status: two couples who made a move to a popular training base, another with an elevated profile since last year’s debut, and first-time world medalists. How, if at all — and if is seldom the case — have these dramatic moves impacted each couple individually and comparatively?
*Due to significant errors in Paul and Islam’s free dance debut at 2014 Autumn Classic International — namely, a wholly invalidated spin — that drastically and inaccurately skewed an original graphic comparison, data from their Grand Prix debut at Cup of China is used instead. In the interest of being thorough, the increases from that event to Nebelhorn were +5.22 (SD), +12.2 (FD) and +17.42 (Total) and in PCS, +2.08 (SD) and +3.36 (FD).
While overall scores suggest a regular, albeit varying, pattern of growth across the board, PCS tells a more intriguing story:
No team has experienced a greater bump than Paradis and Ouellette, perhaps unsurprising given both actual improvement and greater familiarity among judging panels (Nebelhorn last season marked the team’s second-ever international). The couple, too, entered this year’s U.S. Classic as the leading Canadian entry, versus last year’s debut accompanying world medalists Kaitlyn Weaver and Andrew Poje.
For Hubbell and Donohue, a transitional spill in the short dance likely contributed to their outcome as the only team to see a downturn in any category, especially given a significant boost in the free dance. For Paul and Islam, errors in one program — stumbles on the exits of the straight line lift and spin in the free — may have moderated degree of PCS development given the significant uptick in their own short dance components, but its increase is evident nonetheless when compared against a clean outing on 2014’s Grand Prix.
The two events so far have also presented the international debuts for two-thirds of 2015’s Canadian junior podium — both of whom missed assignment to the World Junior Championships given Canada’s limited number of slots and a situation whereby the top two international couples (Mackenzie Bent and Garrett Mackeen, Madeline Edwards and ZhaoKai Pang) were obligated to compete nationally as seniors. Brianna Delmaestro and Timothy Lum, who finished sixth at the U.S. Classic have one additional year’s team experience on Lauren Collins and Shane Firus, with the Vancouver-based couple medaling at both of their 2014 Junior Grand Prix assignments. Barrie’s Collins and Firus, fifth at Nebelhorn, received only one JGP assignment in their debut season of 2014-15, finishing sixth there.
International experience and reputation, however, seemed to play no role in outcomes here, as a quick look at ISU personal best scores at junior and senior levels suggests:
Delmaestro and Lum will have another chance to improve upon results at next week’s Finlandia Trophy, while Collins and Firus are currently unassigned to a second event.
Among U.S. dancers, a similar battle may be emerging in the determination to settle national ranking. New team Danielle Thomas and Daniel Eaton had already competed at one international — Lake Placid — prior to the U.S. Classic, while Anastasia Cannuscio and Colin McManus made a strong season debut at Nebelhorn with their bronze medal finish. Though Cannuscio and McManus have several seasons of experience under their belts, and currently hold the scoring edge, Eaton did see some success, including two Junior World medals, with previous partner Alexandra Aldridge, and with Thomas will be competing at two additional fall internationals — Autumn Classic International and Ice Challenge. But Cannuscio and McManus will be adding further mileage with an assignment to Skate America and Challenger event Golden Spin of Zagreb, and should be primed to make a statement towards holding on to their top-five national placement.
Notes:
– Silver in Oberstdorf marks Paul and Islam’s first international medal since 2013’s Nebelhorn Trophy and first silver medal since 2012’s U.S. International Figure Skating Classic — an event at which they actually beat Chock and Bates.
– Paradis and Ouellette’s Salt Lake City bronze marks their first international podium finish.
– Cannuscio and McManus set new ISU personal bests in both free dance and total score at Nebelhorn.
Pairs has so far been its own story of the battle for ranking. Kirsten Moore-Towers and Michael Marinaro, fourth by a hair at 2015 Canadian Nationals, debuted in Salt Lake City; Julianne Seguin and Charlie Bilodeau, national bronze medalists and World Junior silver medalists, one week later in Oberstdorf.
While Moore-Towers and Marinaro demonstrated some overall improvement since their move to Bruno Marcotte and Richard Gauthier’s Montreal rink, their long program, though reasonably clean, highlighted further room for elemental development given some missed levels and a range of negative GOEs. Meanwhile, after serving as models for consistency last season, Seguin and Bilodeau skated an uncharacteristically troubled long, suggesting that — based on skate on the day — a spot on this season’s world team is far from assured for any couple at this early point in the year, particularly when two teams are momentarily matched by certain hindrances — one still adjusting to a partnership and new training camp, one still acclimating to senior requirements and heightened expectations.
The U.S. scene is even more unpredictable, with a handful of strong pairs determined to establish rank. 2015 national bronze medalists Kayne and O’Shea kicked off the Challenger Series with their first-ever international victory; 2015 champions Scimeca and Knierim raised stakes with the young season’s best American free skate. The short program was a strength for Castelli and Tran, who kicked off their international pursuit with a high among U.S. pairs, and Donlan and Bartholomay, whose PCS stood strong.
And worth mention, too, are Canada’s second Salt Lake City entry of Vanessa Grenier and Maxime Deschamps, who tossed their own hats into the ring with a strong free performance of 101.88, only 0.98 below that of Moore-Towers and Marinaro. Though not likely to be in major contention for the Worlds spot given a lower technical base — sometimes the unexpected can, of course, happen.
Notes:
– Moore-Towers and Marinaro’s bronze was their first international medal together and Marinaro’s first senior medal.
Next Up:
Ondrej Nepela Trophy, where national silver medalists Maia and Alex Shibutani and Piper Gilles and Paul Poirier (dance) and Lubov Iliushechkina and Dylan Moscovitch (pairs) will kick off their international seasons, while Gretchen Donlan and Nate Bartholomay will work to build upon those initial Challenger results.