As the partnered disciplines go, pairs lends itself most readily to analysis by technical improvement — a fall or aborted element are explicit, easily marked errors and likewise, GOE typically does fairly well in grading an element’s obvious level of execution. TES is also democratic; Olympic champions can fall short if the technique fails them on an odd day.
And it’s a particularly enlightening way to evaluate the development of new pairs — even, or perhaps especially, those including well-traveled partners. The 2014-15 season brought three significant new duos to the U.S. and Canadian stages: Marissa Castelli (two-time national champion, 2014 Olympian with Simon Shnapir) and Mervin Tran (2012 World champion for Japan with Narumi Takahashi); Lubov Iliushechkina (2009 World Junior champion with Nodari Maisuradze) and Dylan Moscovitch (with Kirsten Moore-Towers, three-time Canadian medalist, 2014 Olympian); and Kirsten Moore-Towers and Michael Marinaro (2013 World Junior silver medalist with Margaret Purdy). Due to Tran’s representation of Canada in the 2013-14 season, Castelli and Tran had to sit out their first season internationally, competing only at national-level events; due to Iliushechkina’s previous attachment to the Russian federation, she and Moscovitch missed Grand Prix opportunities, debuting late that fall on the Challenger Series.
These limited early engagements impact our statistical analysis for the obvious reason of limited early data, but also, perhaps, had a natural effect on the development of these pairs in competition and before a panel. For our immediate purposes, 2014-15 data for Castelli and Tran comes exclusively from Eastern Sectionals and the U.S. Championships, somewhat difficult to assess against international marks for the Canadian pairs. The subsequent season’s data, however, points more plainly to the team’s present clear strengths — and weaknesses — on an even playing field.
In Canada, the race has not only been one for a podium spot and Worlds berth — with up-and-comers Julianne Seguin and Charlie Bilodeau swiftly blossoming and establishing a strong foothold of their own — but also, of course, one of two teams borne from one of the previous quad’s most successful pairs. And here, too, TES and GOE tell a story.
Across all significant events competed by these three pairs in their first two seasons:
As our graphs of both short and long program TES suggest, the only really consistent pattern for these new couples has been inconsistency — not atypical in the discipline overall. However, the trendlines indicate that for the Canadian couples, this back half of 2015-16 showcased general technical improvements, less so for Castelli and Tran, who, though strong short program skaters, have throughout the season struggled in the free — though improved considerably, by the numbers, from 2014-15’s performance.
On average (with high and low marks retained, by partial necessity), all three pairs improved their technical scoring from first to second year:
| Team | 2014-15 | 2015-16 | % of increase | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | LP | SP | LP | SP | LP | |
| Iliushechkina/Moscovitch | 31.33 | 54.71 | 33.05 | 59.61 | 5.5% | 9% |
| Moore-Towers/Marinaro | 29.19 | 53.41 | 31.84 | 57.19 | 9% | 7.1% |
| Castelli/Tran | 31.26 | 45.05 | 34.14 | 54.68 | 9.2% | 21.4% |
On an elemental basis, scoring improvement is more apparent. Jumping elements remain in flux, but a good comparative ground comes in the highest-scoring element for two of these pairs,* the Group 5 Level 4 Reverse Lasso Lift, or 5RLi4. By 2014-15 season’s best marks:
Iliushechkina/Moscovitch = 5RLi4 – 8.12, LP, Warsaw Cup [GOE = 1.12] Castelli/Tran = 5RLi4 – 7.70, LP, Eastern Sectionals [GOE = 0.7]
*Moore-Towers/Marinaro’s single highest-scoring element in the 2014-15 season, however, was actually a 3T+3T+SEQ of 7.26, executed in the LP at Four Continents; lifts proved a troublesome element, with their best a 5ALi3 for 6.7 in the LP at Skate Canada International. Base value for a L3 Axel Lift was 6.00.
The L4 base value of that element has increased by 0.5 from 2014-15 to 2015-16, from 7.00 to 7.50. However, the shift in BV is only a small component of the significant gains made in 2015-16’s best-scoring lifts:
I/M = 5RLi4 – 8.9, LP, Ondrej Nepela [GOE = 1.4] MT/M = 5RLi4 – 8.5, LP, Worlds [GOE = 1] C/T = 5RLi4 – 8.9, LP, US Classic & Autumn Classic International [GOE = 1.4]
Indeed, more illustrative than improved ability to reach a level or execute a jumping pass is the more subjective aspect of the TES — our old friend GOE.
It’s interesting to note, first, that unlike PCS, which typically sees inflation at national events, GOE plays it somewhat closer to international reality. Though the Canadian pairs set best marks at their Nationals this season, their reception at Worlds largely reinforced that scoring growth:
Also worth note: the 2016 Worlds short program marked the first all-positive GOE outings for both couples (Moore-Towers and Marinaro received no negative GOE in their short at this year’s Nationals — but did lose credit for their twist due to a fall, thereby receiving no GOE on that element regardless). Trends, on the other hand, reinforce Castelli and Tran’s free woes — and patterns in specific element concerns for each pair may further explain the later developments.
As indicated above, lifts proved an early primary weakness for Moore-Towers and Marinaro, the team only executing their first L4 Group 5 lift at this year’s US Classic. Development has fundamentally been something of a moving target, with, for example, a freak mistake on the twist in this year’s Nationals short highlighting too the potential for problem on that element, with only jumps relatively assured for this pair who also made a significant coaching change after their debut season.
But lifts also presented a strange challenge for Iliushechkina and Moscovitch in the early part of this season — seemingly small errors first resulting in a base level lift in the Ondrej Nepela free and subsequently negating a lift apiece (including the 5RLi) in both programs at Cup of China. The issue was resolved by the 2016 leg of the season, but points to the fragility of an element’s success.
And for Castelli and Tran, it’s rather famously been their jumps — particularly the triple salchow — proving a hindrance this year. The element picked up negative GOE in 10 of 13 skates, including on a doubled salchow in the Nationals short; their combination jump included a fall or other interruption or non-completion at every competitive outing.
Pair development is nearly always a long-term process; besides the basics of timing and unison, the fact of meshing sometimes quite disparate technical backgrounds means certain elements may demand a fair amount of trial and error before meeting much success. Certainly here it’s clear enough that each pair enters 2016-17 on a slightly different footing with distinct focuses — but will year three bring any dramatic changes to the current trajectory?
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