by Jacquelyn Thayer
Six dance and five pairs teams representing the U.S. and Canada will take on Sochi ice in the two weeks to come (with some competing as well in the first-ever Olympic team event this weekend). As ever, the attempt here will be to take a closer look at the participants by more thematic means, and this time with a rather specialized approach to analysis. From percent change of PCS and total score growth or progression between periods to trends in career parity or distance and movement within a competition, here are your North American pairs and dance Olympians by the numbers.
1. The Leaders
Much of what can be said of the battle between 2010 Olympic gold medalists Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir and runners-up Meryl Davis & Charlie White, both teams two-time world champions, has certainly been written in this run-up to Sochi. Each team picked up its sixth national title in January, as Davis & White were given ice dance’s first perfect free dance score as their send-off, while Virtue & Moir for their part set a Canadian record in the free, dinged just by a level 3 on twizzles. In light of the dominance the teams have held over the past quadrennial, then, it might be more illuminating to look more closely at numbers than results.
An equivalent comparison between couples is made a little more difficult by Virtue & Moir’s having completed only one full event in 2010-11, meaning that changes in Davis & White’s totals since that season will naturally seem more striking against Virtue & Moir’s three-season shifts. To that end, each span of time is considered here, while a comparison can also be offered between Virtue & Moir’s numbers from their silver-medal outing at 2011 Worlds and current season statistics.
While Virtue & Moir’s totals have seen a couple of outlying lows in the past three seasons, primarily a 169.41 at 2012’s Skate Canada International and 167.87 at 2013 Finlandia Trophy, their PCS in both segments has remained relatively constant in 16 international competitions, with only a 2.87 difference between the high and lower water marks of 38.51 (2013 Grand Prix Final) and 35.64 (2011 Finlandia) in the short dance and of 2.53 between 58.32 (2013 Worlds) and 55.79 (2011 Trophee Eric Bompard) in the free; their marks at 2011 Worlds, too, slot in easily, with a 36.35 in the short and 56.29 in the free dance there. While average numbers for 2013-14 to date show growth from 2011-12, average score dipped a slight 0.54 in 2012-13 from the season prior. But average total has, in general, remained unchanged in three years, increasing by only 0.6 percent; rather curiously, a comparison between the season’s average total to date with the single 2010-11 sample of 2011 Worlds shows a 1 percent decrease, from 181.79 at that event to this year’s average 179.97.
2011 Worlds – 181.79 (36.35 SD, 56.29 FD)
2011 Finlandia Trophy – 170.33 (35.64 SD, 55.85 FD)
2011 Skate Canada International – 178.34 (36.36 SD, 55.83 FD)
2011 Trophee Eric Bompard – 176.93 (36.54 SD, 55.79 FD)
2011 Grand Prix Final – 183.34 (36.65 SD, 57.68 FD)
2012 Four Continents – 182.84 (37.68 SD, 57.17 FD)
2012 Worlds – 182.65 (38.02 SD, 57.56 FD)
2012 World Team Trophy – 177.76 (37.58 SD, 55.91 FD)
Average total = 178.88
Average PCS, short dance = 36.92
Average PCS, free dance = 56.54
2012 Skate Canada International – 169.41 (37.37 SD, 55.90 FD)
2012 Rostelecom Cup – 173.99 (37.50 SD, 56.57 FD)
2012 Grand Prix Final – 179.83 (37.26 SD, 56.86 FD)
2013 4CC – 184.32 (37.62 SD, 56.47 FD)
2013 Worlds – 185.04 (38.30 SD, 58.32 FD)
Average total = 178.34
Average PCS, short dance = 37.61
Average PCS, free dance = 56.82
2013 Finlandia Trophy – 167.87 (36.74 SD, 56.41 FD)
2013 Skate Canada International – 181.03 (37.81 SD, 57.46 FD)
2013 Trophee Eric Bompard – 180.96 (38.37 SD, 57.87 FD)
2013 Grand Prix Final – 190.00 (38.51 SD, 57.85 FD)
Average total = 179.97
Average PCS, short dance = 37.86
Average PCS, free dance = 57.4
0.6% increase in average total since 2011-12, or 1% decrease since 2010-11
SD PCS has increased 2.5% since 2011-12
FD PCS has increased 1.5% since 2011-12
For Davis & White, numbers have grown steadily each year of the current quadrennial. Focusing on the period since 2011-12, components in both segments have built by increments, with this season’s short dance average of 38.34 showing a 1.18 increase and a 58.24 in the free dance one of 0.74 points over 2011-12. While total scores in that period have ranged by 15.07 points, removing a personal high of 191.35 at this year’s Grand Prix Final and low of 176.28 at 2011 Skate America minimizes that spread to 11.49 across thirteen events. But while Davis & White’s marks have progressed at a fairly minor pace in three seasons, the data becomes more striking when that first season of the quad, as the team competed mostly in Virtue & Moir’s absence, is considered. While average total has increased by 2 and 4 points from each of the last two seasons, the 2010-11 average of 170.15 was a full 11 points below that of 2011-12’s average; from 2010-11 to the next season, average PCS in each segment grew by 2.47 for the short dance and a startling 4.21 for the free. The team’s marks also saw a significant leap within the 2010-11 season. After a range that extended from 156.68 at a messy Skate America outing to 172.03 at Four Continents, with short dance components in the 34 range and free dance components between 51-53, Worlds, the team’s first full face-off against Virtue & Moir, resulted in a total of 185.27 — a 13-point jump from the previous event — and around a 2- and 5-point boost in each set of components. While the team’s average score has only grown by 3 percent since 2011-12, between 2010-11 and 2011-12 it expanded by 6 percent, with short dance PCS growing by 7 percent and free dance by 8 percent. The overall impact is a 10 percent growth in average total for Davis & White since the beginning of this cycle, with a similar rate for PCS growth. Total scores are provided below, with PCS for each segment in parentheses.
2010 NHK Trophy – 165.21 (34.69 SD, 52.02 FD)
2010 Skate America – 156.68 (33.62 SD, 50.90 FD)
2010 Grand Prix Final – 171.58 (34.22 SD, 52.79 FD)
2011 Four Continents – 172.03 (34.51 SD, 53.01 FD)
2011 Worlds – 185.27 (36.40 SD, 57.73 FD)
Average total = 170.15
Average PCS, short dance = 34.69
Average PCS, free dance = 53.29
2011 Skate America – 178.07 (36.19 SD, 56.53 FD)
2011 Rostelecom Cup – 179.06 (36.65 SD, 58.27 FD)
2011 Grand Prix Final – 188.55 (37.67 SD, 57.95 FD)
2012 Four Continents – 179.40 (37.44 SD, 57.24 FD)
2012 Worlds – 178.62 (37.48 SD, 56.71 FD)
2012 World Team Trophy – 183.36 (37.54 SD, 58.31 FD)
Average total = 181.18
Average PCS, short dance = 37.16
Average PCS, free dance = 57.5
2012 Skate America – 176.28 (37.14 SD, 56.73 FD)
2012 NHK Trophy – 178.48 (37.36 SD, 57.55 FD)
2012 Grand Prix Final – 183.39 (38.05 SD, 57.63 FD)
2013 Four Continents – 187.36 (37.82 SD, 57.74 FD)
2013 Worlds – 189.56 (38.83 SD, 58.79 FD)
Average total = 183.01
Average PCS, short dance = 37.84
Average PCS, free dance = 57.69
2013 U.S. International Classic – 183.69 (38.01 SD, 57.85 FD)
2013 Skate America – 188.23 (38.27 SD, 58.61 FD)
2013 NHK Trophy – 186.65 (38.35 SD, 58.09 FD)
2013 Grand Prix Final – 191.35 (38.73 SD, 58.40 FD)
Average total = 187.48
Average PCS, short dance = 38.34
Average PCS, free dance = 58.24
3% increase in average total since 2011-12, or 10% increase since 2010-11
SD PCS has increased by 3% since 2011-12, or by 10.5% since 2010-11
FD PCS has increased by 1% since 2011-12, or by 9% since 2010-11
2. The Contenders
Three teams enter Sochi with the potential to attain a podium berth. Among this trio, only pair Meagan Duhamel & Eric Radford have achieved a medal at World level, earning bronze at 2013’s event; countrymates Kirsten Moore-Towers & Dylan Moscovitch finished in fourth place at that competition, while ice dancers Kaitlyn Weaver & Andrew Poje sat fifth in their event, continuing three years within the world’s top 5. With an Olympic medal in reach, the field has been particular competitive this year, making the battle for an individual medal a matter of hitting all marks both technically and aesthetically. However, the development of each team over the quad suggests they’re each capable of staking their claims.
For three-time Canadian champions Meagan Duhamel & Eric Radford and 2011 champs and 2013 and 2014 silver medalists Kirsten Moore-Towers & Dylan Moscovitch, the contest at this year’s National Championships continued the razor-thin race begun at last year’s event. Moore-Towers & Moscovitch established new high marks, including a Canadian record in the short program and total — only for Duhamel & Radford to break them within minutes. Short program scores of 74.96 and 75.80 set up an intense contest, but Duhamel & Radford’s higher base value, courtesy of the triple lutz, helped open a greater gap in the long, earning 137.82 to Moore-Towers & Moscovitch’s 134.48, an overall difference of 4.18 between teams. For the last two seasons, Duhamel & Radford have held the overall advantage over Moore-Towers & Moscovitch in head-to-head international competitions, leading them in four out of four events. Moore-Towers & Moscovitch, however, have picked up their own victories over the other team, winning the free skate battle in two of those events largely on the strength of superior PCS. However, while Duhamel & Radford have, most frequently, held a technical edge, overall averages for each would suggest that the reputed advantage is not guaranteed: after several spotty free skate outings, Duhamel & Radford’s average TES for that segment sits at 59.29, while after beginning the year with two nearly perfect skates, Moore-Towers & Moscovitch hold a nearly 5-point edge with an average of 64.19.
At the outset of this quadrennial, neither team was necessarily projected to ascend to a top 5 world standing; Moore-Towers & Moscovitch had Grand Prix success, but fared less well against the strongest fields, while Duhamel & Radford were the match of two longstanding pairs skaters who still sought the major national and international success of which each had dreamed. Both pairs have made roughly equal strides since the 2010-11 season — Duhamel & Radford’s season average total then of 165.2 has grown by over 26 points to this year’s 191.63, while Moore-Towers & Moscovitch have seen a nearly 28-point improvement, from 169.07 to 196.9. And of additional note going into this event — each team has medaled at 10 of 17 international events, or a 59 percent rate of podium placement. Duhamel & Radford, however, are the only so far to medal at a worlds-level event.
Duhamel/Radford
2010 Nebelhorn Trophy, bronze – 147.44 = 51.81 SP (27.78 TES + 24.03 PCS) + 95.63 LP (51.76 TES + 45.87 PCS)
2010 Skate Canada International, fifth – 158.53 = 54.80 SP (29.08 TES + 25.72 PCS) + 103.73 LP (52.36 TES + 51.37 PCS)
2011 Four Continents, silver – 181.79 = 59.92 SP (35.38 TES + 25.54 PCS) + 121.87 LP (66.55 TES + 55.32 PCS)
2011 Worlds, seventh – 173.03 = 58.83 LP (34.77 TES + 24.06 PCS) + 114.20 LP (61.52 TES + 52.68 PCS)
Average total = 165.2
Average TES, short program = 31.75
Average TES, long program = 58.05
2013 Skate Canada International, bronze – 190.62 = 69.57 SP (37.61 TES + 31.96 PCS) + 121.05 LP (54.71 TES + 66.34 PCS)
2013 Trophee Eric Bompard, silver – 190.89 = 66.07 SP (35.24 TES + 31.83 PCS) + 124.82 LP (62.37 TES + 62.45 PCS)
2013 Grand Prix Final, fifth – 193.38 = 73.07 SP (40.70 TES + 32.37 PCS) + 120.31 LP (60.78 TES + 61.53 PCS)
Average total = 191.63
Average TES, short program = 37.85
Average TES, long program = 59.29
Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
2010 Skate Canada International, silver – 170.92 = 53.68 SP (29.68 TES + 25.00 PCS) + 117.24 LP (62.59 TES + 55.65 PCS)
2010 Skate America, silver – 175.48 = 61.64 SP (35.33 TES + 26.31 PCS) + 113.84 LP (58.58 TES + 55.26 PCS)
2010 Grand Prix Final, sixth – 169.57 = 58.73 SP (32.44 TES + 27.29 PCS) + 110.84 LP (59.21 TES + 52.63 PCS)
2011 Four Continents, fifth – 166.22 = 54.41 SP (28.12 TES + 26.29 PCS) + 111.81 LP (58.93 TES + 53.88 PCS)
2011 Worlds, eighth – 163.17 = 56.86 SP (31.33 TES + 25.53 PCS) + 106.31 LP (56.18 TES + 51.13 PCS)
Average total = 169.07
Average TES, short program = 31.38
Average TES, long program = 59.1
2013 U.S. International Classic, gold – 201.30 = 68.52 SP (37.46 TES + 31.06 PCS) + 132.78 LP (68.51 TES + 64.27 PCS)
2013 Skate America, silver – 208.45 = 71.51 SP (39.59 TES + 31.92 PCS) + 136.94 LP (69.80 TES + 67.14 PCS)
2013 Rostelecom Cup, bronze – 188.73 = 65.65 SP (35.31 TES + 31.34 PCS) + 123.08 LP (60.53 TES + 63.55 PCS)
2013 Grand Prix Final, sixth – 189.11 = 68.77 SP (37.31 TES + 31.46 PCS) + 120.34 LP (57.90 TES + 62.44 PCS)
Average total = 196.9
Average TES, short program = 37.42
Average TES, long program = 64.19
Kaitlyn Weaver & Andrew Poje likewise entered the cycle in a very different position than they find themselves now. Prior to 2010-11, they had competed at two World Championships, finishing 20th and 17th and making their last appearance there in 2008; bronze medal finishes on a Canadian team that held only two spots for championships events meant missing the 2010 Olympics and Worlds in 2009 and 2010. The narrow placement behind Vanessa Crone & Paul Poirier solidified the duo’s determination to make the 2014 team, and the proof of effort has come in their results. A first senior international win at 2010 Four Continents — the consolation for missing the Vancouver spot — was built upon in 2010-11 with a Grand Prix silver and first trip to the Grand Prix Final, though the team’s results and scores lagged behind those of Crone & Poirier, who would take the 2011 national title in the absence of Virtue & Moir. With Crone & Poirier having helped Canada obtain a third Worlds berth in 2010, however, Weaver & Poje were able make their return to the event, with a significant shift in tides: after scores between 136 and 142 at their prior internationals of the season, they finished fifth in the overall competition, picking up a then personal best of 160.32, and placing five spots ahead of their Canadian rivals, who would split shortly after. The trajectory continued from there for Canada’s second team, with a fourth-place at 2012 Worlds after multiple Grand Prix successes that season, and another fifth place in 2013 even after a major injury to Weaver; in 11 of 19 international events since 2010-11, they have obtained a medal, a 58 percent podium rate. Although they now own the third best season’s total in ice dance — a 175.23 from Skate Canada — that score is something of an outlier, with totals over the last three seasons otherwise sitting within or just outside the 160s. The difference, however, may be attributable largely to technical consistency, with the team in other events this year losing one or two levels on elements in one segment, as in free dance twizzles or a Finnstep sequence.
2010 NHK Trophy, silver – 141.57 = 58.69 SD (31.15 TES + 27.54 PCS) + 82.88 FD (40.34 TES + 42.54 PCS)
2010 Skate America, fourth – 142.34 = 59.48 SD (32.42 TES + 27.06 PCS) + 82.86 FD (42.58 TES + 41.28 PCS)
2010 Grand Prix Final, fifth – 136.34 = 55.51 SD (29.50 TES + 26.01 PCS) + 80.83 FD (39.84 TES + 40.99 PCS)
2011 Four Continents, fourth – 151.14 = 65.45 SD (36.50 TES + 28.95 PCS) + 85.69 FD (42.29 TES + 43.40 PCS)
2011 Worlds, fifth – 160.32 = 65.07 SD (35.43 TES + 29.64 PCS) + 95.25 FD (48.51 TES + 46.74 PCS)
Average total = 146.34
Average TES, short program = 33.00
Average TES, long program = 42.71
2013 U.S. International Classic, silver – 161.99 = 62.61 SD (31.17 TES + 31.44 PCS) + 99.38 FD (49.33 TES + 50.05 PCS)
2013 Skate Canada International, silver – 175.23 = 70.35 SD (35.91 TES + 34.44 PCS) + 104.88 FD (51.67 TES + 53.21 PCS)
2013 Rostelecom Cup, silver – 163.14 = 61.50 SD (27.36 TES + 34.14 PCS) + 101.64 FD (48.93 TES + 52.71 PCS)
2013 Grand Prix Final, fifth – 165.04 = 67.68 SD (34.00 TES + 33.68 PCS) + 97.36 FD (45.51 TES + 51.85 PCS)
Average total = 166.35
Average TES, short program = 32.11
Average TES, long program = 48.86
3. The Wildcards
Three additional teams are seeking strong placements, but present a variety of international accomplishments to date. U.S. silver and bronze medal ice dancers Madison Chock & Evan Bates and Maia & Alex Shibutani each finished in the top 10 at last year’s Worlds, but sit further afield in the season’s best list, with the Shibutanis in tenth position and Chock & Bates thirteenth. For two-time U.S. pairs champions Marissa Castelli & Simon Shnapir, major international competition remains relatively new territory, as suggested by a thirteenth-place finish in their first trip to Worlds in 2013. An overview of each team’s season and overall career trends may provide further insight.
Scoring patterns differ quite substantially for each of these teams, but do reveal some notable trends. For the Shibutanis, their debut senior season of 2010-11 saw skyrocketing scores, moving from two shaky initial short dance outings that led to totals in the mid-130s to ten and twenty point improvements at Skate America and Four Continents, culminating in a bronze-earning 163.79 at the 2011 World Championships — an ISU personal best that still stands. The subsequent season seemed likely to repeat a somewhat similar, if more conservative, pattern; injury and health woes instead introduced a late-season decline from a Grand Prix Final high of 160.55, culminating in a 144.72 (twizzle fall in the free dance) and eighth-place Worlds finish. After a troubled start at 2012 Rostelecom Cup which included a free dance stoppage, totals for the duo stabilized: between 2012’s and 2013’s NHK Trophy, a period comprising five international events of varying achievement and execution, the team has not recorded a score lower than 154.47 nor higher than 159.97. And as a sidenote, a score of 157.71 at 2013 Worlds put the team once more in eighth place — 13-point leap in that standing’s base score over a year, with an identical shift upward seen for the seventh- and ninth-place teams as well, perhaps reflecting to some degree the upwards trend in scoring at the topmost level.
2010 Nebelhorn Trophy, fifth – 133.00 [fall in SD]
2010 NHK Trophy, bronze – 136.93 [fall in SD]
2010 Skate America, bronze – 144.81
2011 Four Continents, silver – 155.38
2011 Worlds, bronze – 163.79
2011 Finlandia Trophy, silver – 151.08
2011 Cup of China, silver – 148.40
2011 NHK Trophy, gold – 151.85
2011 Grand Prix Final, fifth – 160.55
2012 Four Continents, fourth – 158.29
2012 Worlds, eighth – 144.72 [fall in FD]
2012 Rostelecom Cup, fourth – 140.91 [stoppage in FD]
2012 NHK Trophy, bronze – 154.56
2013 Four Continents, fourth – 159.97
2013 Worlds, eighth – 157.71
2013 Skate America, bronze – 154.47 [fall in FD] 2013 NHK Trophy, bronze – 157.58
Chock & Bates were that seventh-place team at the 2013 World Championships, their first joint appearance at the event. As a new pairing in 2011-12, marks started at a comparatively low level — 136.88 for a bronze medal at Finlandia Trophy, with a 1.78 decrease at first Grand Prix event Skate Canada International — and the team’s fifth-place national finish concluded their international season. The next season showed some expected second-year growth, with the team scoring in the high 140s in a victory at Nebelhorn and fourth place at Cup of China, but the season’s second half brought a significant bump — Four Continents bronze with 160.42, with three points added to that mark at Worlds and a concluding win at World Team Trophy netting 164.91. This fall, the team saw their marks drop a little from that steep rise, progressing from a 143.06 at Finlandia Trophy with a free dance fall up to 153.37 at Rostelecom Cup. But while total scores have yet to match last spring’s height, PCS is showing a continuation of a trend. Prior to 2013 Nationals, the couple’s best international free dance components mark was a 44.54 at Nebelhorn. That number rose by three points at Four Continents and up to the 49-point range at Worlds, World Team Trophy, and Rostelecom Cup, with the troubled Finlandia skate still receiving a 47.56.
2011 Finlandia Trophy, bronze – 136.88
2011 Skate Canada International, fourth – 135.10
2011 Trophee Eric Bompard, fifth – 130.94 [fall in FD]
2012 U.S. International Classic, fourth – 139.84 [fall in FD]
2012 Nebelhorn Trophy, gold – 147.79
2012 Cup of China, fourth – 149.54
2013 Four Continents, bronze – 160.42
2013 Worlds, seventh – 163.93
2013 World Team Trophy, gold – 164.91
2013 Finlandia Trophy, silver – 143.06 [fall in FD]
2013 Cup of China, bronze – 150.53
2013 Rostelecom Cup, bronze – 153.37
Among these three teams, Castelli & Shnapir hold the longest tenure within senior ranks, so for purposes of level comparison, only this quad’s results will be considered. The path for this pair has primarily been one of progress. The first two seasons of this Olympic cycle were more challenged, with a peak score of 159.85 coming at 2010 first event Skate Canada International and followed by a 6-point decline at Skate America; the 2011-12 season saw the team competing at only two international events, Ondrej Nepela Memorial and NHK Trophy, where scores sat in the high 140s. The dramatic shift would come in the fall of 2012: a debut outing at Skate America gave the pair a new high of 164.19, and four subsequent internationals, including 2013 Four Continents, bumped those marks to the 170.10-174.86 range. A thirteenth-place outing at the team’s first Worlds introduced a season low of 164.00, but 2013-14’s events to date have still shown the team continuing on those newly established base grounds, with a new ISU personal best of 177.11 in a sixth-place finish at Skate America and even a low of 165.91 coming in early competition, September’s U.S. International Classic. Improvement has come to some degree in components; after a range around 48-50 for the free skate in the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons, six of nine international events of the subsequent two years saw the team receiving PCS of about 56 points or higher (and 58 or better at three of those). But that mark has also dipped as low as 51.36 in a flawed 2013 Worlds free skate, and this in fact points to a more important recent trend for the team: after an average spread of 4.29 between TES and PCS in a given free skate between 2010 and 2012, that gap shrank to an average of 3.27 in the 2012-13 season. In the three international competitions of fall 2013, a sort of rough parity has been achieved, with TES and PCS nearly equal to each other at every outing — from a high difference of 1.01 at the U.S. Classic to as little as 0.37 at Skate America. This may suggest, then, that as visibility has continued to grow for Castelli & Shnapir, so have components — but reception is closely dependent upon element execution.
2010 Skate Canada International, fourth – 159.85; 103.51 LP (53.82 TES + 50.69 PCS)
2010 Skate America, sixth – 153.33; 106.09 LP (57.23 TES + 48.86 PCS)
2011 Ondrej Nepela Memorial, fourth – 147.97; 94.11 LP (48.23 TES + 48.88 PCS)
2011 NHK Trophy, seventh – 149.02; 99.09 LP (53.05 TES + 48.04 PCS)
2012 Skate America, fifth – 164.19; 108.52 LP (56.10 TES + 52.42 PCS)
2012 Ice Challenge, gold – 174.86; 114.42 LP (56.52 TES + 58.80 PCS)
2012 NHK Trophy, bronze – 174.51; 112.66 LP (55.33 TES + 58.33 PCS)
2013 Four Continents, bronze – 170.10; 117.04 LP (59.03 TES + 58.01 PCS)
2013 Worlds, thirteenth – 164.00; 108.32 LP (56.96 TES + 51.36 PCS)
2013 World Team Trophy, fifth – 172.30; 115.12 LP (60.07 TES + 56.05 PCS)
2013 U.S. International Classic, fourth – 165.91; 103.65 LP (52.32 TES + 53.33 PCS)
2013 Skate America, sixth – 177.11; 114.55 LP (57.46 TES + 57.09 PCS)
2013 NHK Trophy, fourth – 168.89; 110.29 LP (55.30 TES + 55.99 PCS)
4. The First-Timers
Finally, three young teams of quite diverse levels of tenure enter under comparatively unusual circumstances. For dancers Alexandra Paul & Mitch Islam and pairs Paige Lawrence & Rudi Swiegers, both of Canada, and Americans Felicia Zhang & Nathan Bartholomay, the trip to Sochi is more than the fulfillment of an Olympic dream — it also signals each team’s first appearance at a senior event of this scope, with none having previously competed at a senior World Championships and only Paul & Islam and Lawrence & Swiegers, as units, having competed at Junior Worlds (the former capturing silver in 2010, the latter placing fourth in 2009; Zhang finished ninth with Taylor Toth at 2010’s event). Given the limited experience of each duo at this level, expectations are conservative, though the storyline for each offers its own shading.
Paul & Islam earned their spot with a very strong bronze medal showing at the Canadian Championships, picking up a best total of 170.64 (67.67 in the short dance, 102.97 in the free) and finishing 6.12 points ahead of the fourth-place Piper Gilles & Paul Poirier. Technical marks were particularly key, with the couple picking up the only pair of L4 Finnstep sequences in the event and proceeding in the free dance to receive their very first L4 step sequence for the circular.
In four seasons at the senior level, the team has competed in only seven international events, including three Senior Bs; two additional Grand Prix assignments in 2010 and 2011 were cut short due to injury withdrawals prior to the free dance. While an 2011-12 season rattled by further injury and incident resulted in poorer than average results, the team subsequently rallied, faring well enough in two Senior B assignments the following season and this year establishing a new personal best short dance mark of 59.06 at Nebelhorn Trophy, and new personal best free dance (90.03) and total (143.77) scores at Skate Canada International one month later. Of note within the couple’s individual event results, however, is movement and distance within the ranks. In three competitions, the team improved their standing by two spots after the short dance courtesy of a strong free dance, finishing second in that segment at 2010 Skate Canada (fourth overall) and 2012 U.S. International Classic (capturing silver), and fourth (fifth overall) in a particularly strong field at 2013 Skate Canada. At only two international events has a free dance placed lower in a segment than has a short dance at that same event, in both cases the result of lost element credit for a twizzle error, moving from a sixth to seventh (sixth overall) at 2012 Four Continents and first to third at 2013 Nebelhorn Trophy. Also significant has been space between the team and their immediate opponents: at four competitions, the couple’s score was closer to that of the team ahead in the standings than to that below, and of roughly equal distance at a fifth event. But also striking is distance between Paul & Islam and leading teams, an average point differential of 28.98, though a flawed statistic given the wide variations in field difficulty that the couple has so far faced. The table below further breaks down the numbers:
2010 Skate Canada International, fourth – 138.16 (Chock/Zuerlein had 139.05, Carron/Jones had 136.03; Crone/Poirier led with 154.42); 6th in SD, 2nd in FD
2011 Skate America, eighth – 111.70 (Cannuscio/Lorello had 115.22; Davis/White led with 178.07); 8th in SD, 7th in FD
2012 Four Continents, sixth – 117.97 (Hubbell/Donohue had 129.20, Yu/Wang had 115.05; Virtue/Moir led with 182.84); 6th in SD, 7th in FD.
2012 U.S. International Classic, silver – 143.76 (Gilles/Poirier had 146.90, Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt had 140.86); 4th in SD, 2nd in FD.
2012 Nebelhorn Trophy, fifth – 137.92 (Monko/Khaliavin had 139.70, Heekin-Canedy/Dun had 132.61; Chock/Bates led with 147.79); 5th in SD, 4th in FD.
2013 Nebelhorn Trophy, bronze – 141.99 (Monko/Khaliavin had 142.14, Huang/Zheng had 133.90; Hubbell/Donohue led with 147.11); 1st in SD, 3rd in FD.
2013 Skate Canada International, fifth – 143.77 (Riazanova/Tkachenko had 145.56, Zhiganshina/Gazsi had 138.16; Virtue/Moir led with 181.03); 7th in SD, 4th in FD.
Average gap between Paul/Islam and team in front: 3.21
Average gap w/ outlier of 2012 Four Continents (11.23) removed: 1.88
Average gap between Paul/Islam and team behind: 3.85
Average w/ outlier of 2011 Skate America (last place) removed: 4.49
Average distance between Paul/Islam and first-place team: 28.98
Four-time national bronze medalists Lawrence & Swiegers were able to maintain their position in this first year since xxxx that Canada has held a third spot in pairs at a Worlds-level competition, finishing 5.91 points ahead of new team Natasha Purich & Mervin Tran. While their skates were not without error — and Purich & Tran actually earned a technical mark 1.21 points better in the short — the longstanding pair’s components gave them a slight boost in each segment. The pair’s achievement comes after an autumn during which Lawrence grappled with injury, effecting a tough outing at the U.S. Classic but to the lesser detriment of Grand Prix scores or results, with the team actually scoring one point better in a fourth-place outing at this year’s Skate Canada International over last year’s, and obtaining roughly equivalent marks in both a fourth-place at 2012’s Rostelecom Cup and a sixth-place at 2013 NHK Trophy. Scores have remained fairly consistent for Lawrence & Swiegers throughout this cycle; outside of a high of 171.73 obtained in a bronze medal performance 2011 Four Continents and a low of 141.24 at 2011 Nebelhorn Trophy, the team’s scores have ranged from 153.55 to 164.03 in those remaining eleven competitions, with eight falling in a 6-point range between 153.55 and 159.82. But if the pair’s scores have seen little change in four seasons, what has expanded is the distance between their marks and those of the topmost pairs. In 2010-11, average gap between Lawrence & Swiegers and the winning pair at their three international events was 22 points; in a 2011-12, it more than doubled to 44.33, and while the gap closed slightly the following season, this year, as the team has faced off against pairs including Tatiana Volosozhar & Maxim Trankov and Wenjing Sui & Cong Han, who have helped up the sport’s technical ante, the gap has expanded to 54.45. The team, too, is more often closer to those in back than those immediately ahead, with such being the case in nine of thirteen events.
2010 Skate Canada International, bronze – 161.15 (Moore-Towers/Moscovitch had 170.92, Castelli/Shnapir had 159.85; Iliushechkina/Maisuradze led with 171.40); 3rd in both segments
2010 Rostelecom Cup, fifth – 154.67 (Gerboldt/Enbert had 160.42, Berton/Hotarek had 150.85; Kavaguti/Smirnov led with 182.70); 5th in both segments
2011 Four Continents, bronze – 171.73 (Duhamel/Radford had 181.79, Yankowskas/Coughlin had 166.97; Pang/Tong led with 199,45); 2nd in SP, 4th in LP
2011 Nebelhorn Trophy, fifth – 141.24 (Hausch/Wende had 159.30, Dube/Wolfe had 135.64; Volosozhar/Trankov led with 183.65); 5th in both segments
2011 Skate Canada International, eighth – 153.96 (Yu/Jin had 158.36; Volosozhar/Trankov led with 201.38); 7th in SP, 8th in LP
2012 Four Continents, seventh – 158.66 (Evora/Ladwig had 167.99, Dube/Wolfe had 154.79; Sui/Han led with 201.83); 6th in SP, 7th in LP
2012 U.S. International Classic, silver – 164.03 (Moore-Towers/Moscovitch had 179.25, Vise/Baldwin had 143.34); 2nd in both segments
2012 Skate Canada International, fourth – 158.33 (Berton/Hotarek had 172.03, Popova/Massot had 149.37; Savchenko/Szolkowy led with 201.36); 4th in both segments
2012 Rostelecom Cup, fourth – 154.16 (Denney/Coughlin had 179.21, Martiusheva/Rogonov had 150.15; Volosozhar/Trankov led with 207.53); 4th in both segments
2013 Four Continents, sixth – 162.30 (Peng/Zhang had 164.82, Wang/Zhang had 145.56; Duhamel/Radford led with 199.18); 7th in SP, 5th in LP
2013 U.S. International Classic, fifth – 155.00 (Castelli/Shnapir had 165.91, Davidovich/Krasnapolsky had 133.07; Moore-Towers Moscovitch led with 201.30); 5th in both segments
2013 Skate Canada International, fourth – 159.82 (Duhamel/Radford had 190.62, Denney/Frazier had 158.83; Berton/Hotarek led with 193.92); 6th in SP, 4th in LP
2013 NHK Trophy, sixth – 153.55 (Denney/Frazier had 167.85, Martiusheva/Rogonov had 145.37; Volosozhar/Trankov led with 236.49); 6th in both segments.
Average gap between Lawrence/Swiegers and team in front: 13.01
Average w/ highest gap of 2013 Skate Canada International removed: 11.53
Average gap between Lawrence/Swiegers and team behind: 7.76
Average w/ outlier of 2011 Skate Canada International (last place) removed: 8.4
Average distance between Lawrence/Swiegers and first-place team: 39.3
Zhang & Bartholomay’s surprise national silver came with a pair of very well-executed performances that kept them in second in both segments of the competition and granted them a total of 201.72. They were also the only team to receive all positive GOEs in both short and long program, also marking the first time in their career together that the pair has achieved such a result. Because of their comparatively short tenure — the pair teamed in 2011 after the conclusion of Zhang’s two-season partnership with Taylor Toth, and received their first international assignment in 2012 — the team’s results across five international competitions (two small Senior Bs, two Grand Prix events, and 2013’s Four Continents) make discernment of a developmental pattern difficult, if not ill-advised. Their worst results have come at each of the first two editions of the U.S. International Classic, including a personal low of 130.20 in a troubled set of performances at 2013’s event, while their personal best came at this season’s Skate America with a total of 168.42, 1.12 better than the prior best set at Four Continents. What does seem evident is the team’s tendency to improve dramatically over a season’s course, but less clear is what this means for the duo entering competition against the world’s best teams. Interestingly, in statistical terms, their differential from their closest competitors is superior to that of Lawrence & Swiegers, with an average of only 4.12 points separating them from those immediately in front and 10.99 from those behind them. However, given the samples available in each case, with the Canadian pair having faced a larger and overall deeper pool of competitors over time, the data cannot be considered as especially useful material in predicting outcomes here.
2012 U.S. International Classic, fourth – 143.32 (Vise/Baldwin had 143.34, Davis/Ladwig had 121.31; Moore-Towers/Moscovitch led with 179.25); 3rd in SP, 4th in LP
2013 Four Continents, fourth – 167.30 (Castelli/Shnapir had 170.10, Peng/Zhang had 164.82; Duhamel/Radford led with 199.18); 4th in both segments
2013 U.S. International Classic, seventh – 130.20 (Davidovich/Krasnapolsky had 133.07; Moore-Towers/Moscovitch led with 201.30); 6th in SP, 7th in LP
2013 Skate America, seventh – 168.42 (Castelli/Shnapir had 177.11, Purdy/Marinaro had 146.28; Volosozhar/Trankov led with 237.71); 7th in both segments
2013 Cup of China, sixth – 155.52 (Scimeca/Knierim had 161.72, Martiusheva/Rogonov had 147.19; Savchenko/Szolkowy led with 201.21); 8th in SP, 5th in LP
Average gap between Zhang/Bartholomay and team in front: 4.12
Average w/ highest gap of 2013 Skate America removed: 2.97
Average gap between Zhang/Bartholomay and team behind: 10.99
Average w/ outlier of 2013 U.S. International Classic (last place) removed: 13.74
Average distance between Zhang/Bartholomay and first-place team: 50.78
5. The Odds and Ends
The individual pairs short program takes place Tuesday, February 11, with the free skate scheduled for Wednesday. Dance kicks off Sunday the 16th and concludes with the free dance on February 17. Assorted live and tape-delay viewing options are available; in the U.S., NBCOlympics.com provides livestreamed coverage of all events for those with a cable provider, while the NBC Sports network will air the figure skating events live and in their entirety. In Canada, livestream is available on the CBC Olympics site.