For U.S. and Canadian pairs, the Grand Prix offered up a rather mixed bag of results: while two Canadian pairs are once more Grand Prix Final-bound and closer in ranking than ever, established and up-and-coming national teammates are vying for their own opportunity. In the U.S., technical consistency is proving a key to success, and with several teams running closely so far, the battle is on for a chance at just two Olympic and World berths.
1. The Battle for Canadian Gold – 2013 Canadian silver medalists Kirsten Moore-Towers & Dylan Moscovitch made a substantial case for themselves with their silver medal-outing at Skate America, coming on the heels of an also strong early performance at September’s U.S. International Figure Skating Classic. The team picked up personal bests in each category at that Grand Prix opener in Detroit, including a total of 208.45, 18 points better than Duhamel & Radford’s Trophee Eric Bompard best of 190.89. Notably, the scores at Skate America also showed Moore-Towers & Moscovitch improving by 9 points over the former best total set last season at Worlds, and blowing away last year’s Grand Prix best of 192.02, earned at 2012 NHK Trophy. Less successful, however, was the team’s next event, Grand Prix conclusion Rostelecom Cup. With a fall for Moscovitch in the short program and a fall for Moore-Towers on a messy dismount from their rink-circling lasso lift, the team’s total dropped by 20 points to 188.73, with an especially costly drop in the free skate from Skate America’s 136.94 high to Rostelecom Cup’s 123.08.
With the pair carrying over last season’s short program, scores have not shown a substantial deviation; a 69.25 at 2013 Worlds became a 71.51 at Skate America, with improvement coming, perhaps unsurprisingly, mostly on TES — 37.94 in London versus 39.59 at the later event. Where the team did see a steeper rise, however, was in the free skate’s PCS, earning 67.14 in components for the Skate America outing of their “Fellini Medley” program to last year’s Grand Prix best of 59.93 (NHK Trophy), and overall season best of 63.47 (Worlds). With a messier free skate performance at Rostelecom Cup, the team’s technical mark dropped by 9 points — from Skate America’s 69.80 to 60.53, plus a 1-point deduction — but their PCS fell only to 63.55, still showing improvement from prior seasons. The move would suggest that Moore-Towers & Moscovitch’s programs and partnership alike are continuing to progress well on the international stage, but may also signify a not-unexpected bump following on last season’s fourth-place Worlds finish. With the particular success of last year’s programs, the team along with choreographer Mark Pillay seems to have settled into a more dance-inspired style that concentrates on the team’s strong connection, a move that would seem to be paying off so far.
While the initial Grand Prix events for 2013 World bronze medalists Meagan Duhamel & Eric Radford may have fallen a bit short of the team’s own expectations, resulting in bronze at Skate Canada International alongside a silver at Trophee Eric Bompard, their scores are actually on par with those obtained on last year’s Grand Prix circuit — the best total this season of 190.89 in Paris stacks up with last season’s early best of 190.49 from 2012 Skate Canada. While the lower free skate mark of this season, from Skate Canada, earned only 121.05 courtesy of a 54.71 TES due to an aborted lasso lift, underrotated lutzes, and unexpectedly low levels on the death spiral and combination spin, its PCS of 66.34 not only outdoes last season’s Grand Prix best of 62.00 (2012 Skate Canada), but also exceeds the 2012-13 season best of 65.20 earned at 2013 Worlds. The Alice in Wonderland program from Julie Marcotte incorporates some especially creative transitions and choreographic highlights, such as a visual reference to the “rabbit hole” at both beginning and end, which is succeeding with judges: the team received by far the highest Choreographic mark at 2013 Skate Canada, an 8.50 over the next-best mark of 7.68 for winners Stefania Berton & Ondrej Hotarek, which also tops Duhamel & Radford’s own 2013 Worlds mark of 8.25.
But while Moore-Towers & Moscovitch’s PCS has risen, Duhamel & Radford’s has kept at least equal pace. Duhamel & Radford hold a very narrow Canadian best PCS in the short program with their Skate Canada performance of their “Tribute” program, scored by Radford’s own composition; their mark of 31.96 exceeds Moore-Towers & Moscovitch’s Skate America PCS by just 0.04 points. Duhamel & Radford’s second short program outing in Paris, which included a fall on the lutz for Duhamel, saw a small drop down to 31.83, but a fall for Moore-Towers & Moscovitch in Moscow took their mark down to 31.34 — a loss of 0.58 for them to the 0.13 for the other team, with the decrease for Moore-Towers & Moscovitch reflected, curiously, most extensively in the Choreography mark (8.18 to 7.93). For Duhamel & Radford, the largest hit came on Skating Skills (8.14 to 7.89) but was balanced to some degree by a double-digit rise in the Transition mark, from 7.96 to 8.07, as well as a 0.04 increase in Choreography. Moore-Towers & Moscovitch’s Skate America free skate PCS is best among Canadian pairs to date, but Duhamel & Radford’s Skate Canada PCS sits only 0.80 behind; their Trophee Eric Bompard mark of 62.45 for a clean outing, however, is 1.10 lower than Moore-Towers & Moscovitch’s Rostelecom Cup score in a performance that included another fall for Moscovitch.
With both teams skating clean and the components battle at a near-draw, the edge may be decided on base value. With the unusual inclusion of both side-by-side triple lutzes and a throw triple lutz, Duhamel & Radford have a starting edge of 2.90 in the free skate over Moore-Towers & Moscovitch, who utilize the triple salchow twice. However, at both events the team received negative GOE on the side-by-side jump, as well as an underrotation call at Skate Canada. Moore-Towers & Moscovitch, however, have also received negative GOE on their side-by-side jumps, including a substantial hit of -1.40 with Moscovitch’s fall at Rostelecom Cup. On cleaner performances in the free skate at 2013 Worlds, each team picked up positive GOE, with Duhamel & Radford possessing a +0.20 lead in that regard — but each netted negative GOE on their respective unique throws, Moore-Towers & Moscovitch’s worse by -0.60.
The conclusion, then, may be no real conclusion: despite Moore-Towers & Moscovitch’s substantial lead in the scoring race to date, a lack of equivalent performances among both teams so far makes calling any prediction for their upcoming face-offs rather difficult. Moore-Towers & Moscovitch may have an edge in respect of working within a comfort zone, continuing with a polished and well-liked short program and a free skate that highlights their particular performance strengths. Duhamel & Radford’s programs have the team working in different performance veins than previously, and the shifts in style and composition from a heavily lyrical short program to a more quirkily modern and character-focused long may have to some degree impacted their execution in these initial outings; they do, however, have an undeniable edge in elements. At this point, it’s truly a case of outcome depending wholly on who can best execute on the days that matter most.
2. The Battle for Canadian Bronze – More than a battle for bronze, this is also a contest for that third Olympic and Worlds berth, the first time Canada will send three pairs entries to either event since 2002 and 2009, respectively. Paige Lawrence & Rudi Swiegers have sat as Canada’s number three since 2011, but will likely be vying with at least one team for the honor at this year’s competition: Natasha Purich & Mervin Tran, who made a fifth-place debut at Nebelhorn Trophy and saw their numbers grow at their single Grand Prix assignment of Trophee Eric Bompard.
In their first Grand Prix event this season at Skate Canada, Lawrence & Swiegers improved slightly upon last year’s Grand Prix best, earning a total of 159.82 to a 158.33 at 2012 Skate Canada; their 153.55 at second event NHK Trophy, meanwhile, showed only a slight decline from 2012 Rostelecom Cup’s 154.16. True to the minimal change, individual segment scores also remained on a par, with the greatest year-to-year deviation coming in the free skate: their low mark this year of 100.77 at NHK Trophy for their Oz: The Great and Powerful Program was a significant drop from the 106.88 for its initial outing at Skate Canada, as well as a drop from 2012 Grand Prix scores in the 102-105 range for last year’s War Horse program, though the team received deductions of 1-2 points in all four of those skates. PCS too has remained consistent over two seasons, though last season’s short program held a slight edge over this year’s “I Put a Spell On You” program, 2012 marks of 26.98 (Skate Canada) and 27.01 (Rostelecom Cup) decreasing this year to 26.58 (Skate Canada) and 26.48 (NHK Trophy). There, Performance and Choreography may tell the story for the judges, as a comparison between each year’s higher-component outing shows a drop-off of 0.18 and 0.25 in each category.
Purich & Tran’s first international outing at Nebelhorn Trophy, discussed here, landed the team a total of 156.15, right between Lawrence & Swiegers’s Grand Prix results. Their performances at Trophee Eric Bompard two months later, however, earned the highest total behind those of the top two teams — 162.09, courtesy of a 7-point jump in their free skate score from a 99.44 at the first event to 106.20 in Paris. The growth came entirely on TES, thanks in large part to cleaner jumps, as well as a slightly revised program layout that coincided with a boost from an imperfect L3 group 3 lift to a better-executed L4 group 4 and an additional 0.55 points in base value. Their components in both segments, however, actually declined from Oberstdorf, from 24.92 to 24.02 in their “Tiny Dancer” short program and 50.68 to 49.95 in the Life is Beautiful long. Given the consistency of the differences in conjunction with improved elements, however, it seems most likely an outgrowth of evaluation by different panels.
Where Lawrence & Swiegers may hold an advantage in this race is in their experience, serving as the longest-tenured pairs team in Canada and having competed as seniors nationally since 2009. But with Lawrence grappling throughout the Grand Prix with injury, and Purich & Tran making apparent strides despite their short time together and the disparity of experience between partners, the contest for that final Olympic berth may prove quite tight.
3. The Battle of U.S. Champions – 2012 U.S. champions Caydee Denney & John Coughlin established themselves as overall leaders of the U.S. field on the Grand Prix, picking up top totals of 184.01 and 182.43 at Trophee Eric Bompard and Skate America, holding a cushion over 2013 champs Marissa Castelli & Simon Shnapir’s Skate America best total of 177.11. More notably, the team has also grown their scores since last season’s Grand Prix — after which their season wrapped prematurely due to Coughlin’s hip injury — with last season’s best a 179.21 at 2012 Rostelecom Cup. In the element-centered short program, the improvement comes on the technical end, with even a best of 33.14 last year at 2012 Skate America exceeded by both a 34.60 and 36.00 at Skate America and Trophee Eric Bompard, where their overall score of 63.52 on the Tosca program was also a new ISU personal best. However, while the team also progressed by 2-3 points technically in their Phantom of the Opera free skate — a revised carry-over from last season — their PCS in that segment actually declined, from a best of 58.91 at 2012 Rostelecom Cup to this year’s marks of 56.99 (Skate America) and 56.95 (Trophee Eric Bompard) — most of the change coming on Transitions and Choreography. But the team has added difficulty to several elements, including a back outside edge death spiral, elevating their base value by more than a point, while GOE on elements like the throw triple loop has grown.
Although Castelli & Shnapir’s numbers currently run behind Denney & Coughlin’s in total, the team has actually improved upon last year’s Grand Prix outings. Their total of 177.11 at Skate America, as well as a score of 62.56 for their Santana short program — where they bested Denney & Coughlin by 0.50 — were new personal bests, while a messier performance at NHK Trophy still netted the team 168.89, over 4 points better than last year’s lowest marks in the 164 range at Skate America and Worlds. While good technical marks, including several L4 elements, have been key, it’s their PCS that has shown a consistent improvement, with lows at NHK Trophy of 27.80 in the short and 55.99 in the Skyfall long still a jump from last year’s 2012 Skate America lows of 25.08 and 52.42; their better marks, 28.14 and 57.09 from Skate America, are on a 1-point par with last year’s later season marks, suggesting that whatever attention the team earned last season, as well as their own increased exposure to major international competition, may have had a lasting effect.
Castelli & Shnapir hold the best free skate PCS for a U.S. pairs team this season, their 57.09 a slight 0.10 better than Denney & Coughlin’s mark at the same competition, Skate America. The head-to-head match-up, where Denney & Coughlin won the short program PCS battle by 0.32, show very few clear patterns, with both teams swapping leads in Skating Skills, Performance, and Choreography — though Castelli & Shnapir did in each program win the Transitions mark. Where Denney & Coughlin can best anticipate success, however, is on the technical end: even the TES for a short program outing with a fall on the throw triple loop for Denney at Skate America leads both of their rivals’ scores by a fraction, while the difference is even more dramatic in the free skate, where Denney & Coughlin’s lower mark of 63.38 at Skate America (only 0.16 worse than a best mark in Paris) tops Castelli & Shnapir’s own best outing at Skate America by 5.92 points. With the comparative difficulty of Denney & Coughlin’s elements, as well as their consistency of performance, a second victory for the other team may require both their own strongest season effort as well as more unpredictability from the 2012 champions.
4. The Battle for the Podium – 2013 U.S. silver medalists Alexa Scimeca & Chris Knierim seemed on track after a slow start due to Knierim’s recovery from a broken fibula, earning a total of 173.70 at Rostelecom Cup, fourth-best score for a U.S. pair on this year’s Grand Prix and almost 5 points better than Castelli & Shnapir’s NHK Trophy total. The score was also a 12-point improvement over Scimeca & Knierim’s initial outing at Cup of China: at that event, both partners fell on the salchow in the SP and Scimeca on the throw triple loop in the free skate, while a cleaner performance in Moscow added 10.41 points to that segment and granted the team a new personal best total of 173.70.
As a new team in 2012, the pair served as alternates and competed at only one Grand Prix event, NHK Trophy, where they earned a total of 163.10. Though this year’s troubled outing in Beijing put them behind that mark, they bested themselves in one very significant, and not unexpected, category: components, with a 23.64 and 49.82 at last year’s Grand Prix debut transformed into a 27.43 and 54.92 at this year’s lower-scoring Cup of China, even with far more noticeable errors. Though their “Papa Can You Hear Me” short in Moscow was a personal best, scoring 59.56, it actually picked up a slightly lower components mark of 26.91. PCS for their Ever After long, however, grew even more to 56.36, only 0.27 points below their personal best free skate component mark set at 2013 Worlds, with considerable growth coming on all categories but Skating Skills, which remained steady at 7.00.
Their international success, particularly with Knierim’s continued recovery and increased mileage, so far puts them ahead of two other American teams, both competing for the first time on the circuit: 2013 U.S. bronze medalists Felicia Zhang & Nathan Bartholomay, who also competed at Cup of China as well as Skate America, and new team Lindsay Davis & Rockne Brubaker, who appeared at Skate Canada and Rostelecom Cup. Zhang & Bartholomay made their international debut at last season’s Four Continents, picking up a total of 167.30 in a fourth-place finish there, and after a rocky start this year at the U.S. Classic, they resumed course with a personal best 168.42 at Skate America, also earning a personal best 55.83 in their Carousel Waltz short program despite a fall and hand down on the triple toe for Zhang and Bartholomay, respectively. A Les Miserables free skate performance of 112.59 was just under two points below that of Castelli & Shnapir at the same event, with Zhang & Bartholomay edging them out by over three points in TES. Their follow-up in Beijing, however, saw the pair’s total dropping by almost 13 points to 155.52 courtesy of two problematic programs which saw minimal deviation in the PCS, but an overall loss of almost 10 points simply in TES. As the fourth-best U.S. pair in score total to date, Zhang & Bartholomay are in position to contend for a podium spot, but will need significant technical precision to do so, given some consistent struggles on elements including the triple twist and side-by-side triple toe, and, to date, lower PCS than their leading opponents.
Davis & Brubaker entered the season with an eye towards making the Olympic team, but so far have struggled in competition. After a Nebelhorn debut of 156.91, discussed here, their total scores dropped from a 153.71 at Skate Canada to 151.90 at Rostelecom Cup, with scores on both the Louis Armstrong short and Umbrellas of Cherbourg long declining by 1.10 and 0.71. Although the team’s PCS improved slightly in Moscow from Saint John, elements have been a particular issue, TES lagging as much as 4-5 points behind that of the U.S. teams ahead of them in free skate scoring. While spins have fared well, most other elements have pointed to the challenges sometimes faced in a new partnership; jumps and lifts that received strong marks at one outing may be missed or aborted in another, while the triple twist, receiving a L1 at Skate Canada and a basic level at Rostelecom Cup, will also need time to gel.
Given current results, as well as team progression to date, Scimeca & Knierim would seem the likeliest to obtain at least a medal position, and potentially a spot on the Olympic and World teams dependent on performance from either of the other top pairs at Nationals. Improvement is possible for both Zhang & Bartholomay and Davis & Brubaker, but there may be little time to make a significant enough leap in the weeks to go before the deciding event.
5. The World Junior Medalists – The 2013 World Junior gold and silver medalists, Haven Denney & Brandon Frazier of the U.S. and Margaret Purdy & Michael Marinaro of Canada, each made their senior Grand Prix debut with two events. For Denney & Frazier, outings at Skate Canada and NHK Trophy were successful; their first Grand Prix event resulted in a fifth-place finish with a total of 158.83, a 3-point improvement from their winning total at Junior Worlds, while NHK Trophy resulted in personal bests across all categories, including a much-increased total of 167.85, a mark of 109.18 for their Notre Dame du Paris free skate, and a 58.67 point “Malaguena” short program that placed them closely ahead of Castelli & Shnapir in the segment. The series was, though, more challenging for Purdy & Marinaro, who withdrew from a planned season start at the U.S. Classic likely due to an earlier shoulder injury for Purdy. Although their last-place Skate America mark of 146.28 was an improvement over a winning score of 144.72 at last year’s JGP Lake Placid, some snags in element execution in both their “Unchained Melody” short and Casablanca long suggest some difficulty for the team in transitioning to senior-level program requirements. A troubled follow-up one week later at Skate Canada saw the team with a fall on a lift in free skate practice and, later, a hitch on the lasso lift in performance as well, resulting in a L1 and -2.10 GOE for that element; the team also picked up negative GOE at both events for L1 triple twists and bobbled jumps.
For both teams, their respective national championships should provide an opportunity to make a stronger impression. While both competed at the senior level last season as well (and, for Purdy & Marinaro, since 2011), Denney & Frazier have demonstrated their ability to play internationally with more established pairs, and could make a move in Boston. Purdy & Marinaro are less likely to make a run for the bronze-medal position given the results set out so far by Lawrence & Swiegers and Purich & Tran, but should certainly be capable of turning around their numbers, and are also in position to obtain an assignment at least to Four Continents, where they would have a key opportunity to improve upon their season’s best and add to their world ranking points.
6. The Next Steps – The Grand Prix series officially wraps with the Grand Prix Final in Fukuoka, Japan, from December 5 to 8, where Moore-Towers & Moscovitch and Duhamel & Radford will face off for the first time this season. After that event comes Nationals, with senior events at both the U.S. Figure Skating Championships in Boston and the Canadian Tire National Skating Championships in Ottawa slated for January 9-12.